My Predictions For 2012

When it comes to predicting the future, I'm sure I don't have the unnervingly accurate prophetic powers of John Elfreth Watkins who was recently feted across the internet for his ten 100-year predictions that mostly came true (Watkins’ hits: digital photography, the internet, tanks. Watkins’ misses: the end of the letters C, X and Q, predicting everyone will walk 10 miles a day). Disclaimers of accuracy aside as it seems traditional for blog posts in January to indulge in some soothsaying I’d like to add my own list of predictions for 2012.

Prediction One. Grim is about to get grimmer, and we're not all in this together.
The gloomy economic news is not going away any time soon and as a result the inequalities in our society (which according to some measures are now higher than they have been for the last three decades) will get wider still. This economic instability will continue to cause turmoil in the housing industry and at least one major RSL will rue some of its decisions, as over-stretched reaches breaking point.

You've got to have a dream...

The dire financial straits have tested the sense of fairness on which British society rests, with those at both extremes of the wealth spectrum vilified by their political opponents. A plague on both their houses, I say. Despite the pernicious effect of the financial divide I am not holding my breath for equitable corrective measures from the government. The 2012 forecast is for protests and further riots.

Prediction Two. Localism will clog up the planning machinery and expected homes will be delayed.
One of The Localism Bill’s key aspects is to give communities greater powers when it comes to planning permission. So far, so sensible. However, we’re going to see in 2012 that power to the people is one thing, but a natural consequence is that it gives more power to the Nimbyists. The Government has to decide whether it wants to address the critical housing shortage, if so we need resolution.

Prediction Three. Homelessness will increase and the "sticking plaster" policies will come unstuck.
Against the backdrop of the housing crisis, the issue of homelessness seems to have dropped down the news agenda. This will change as further financial constraints put more at risk of losing their houses, as well as increased unemployment meaning that taking to the streets is the only option for some. Again, this is an area where policy needs to be stronger to deal with a mounting problem. It’s certainly not something that the Government will want to be visible as the world’s attention turns on London for the Olympics.

Prediction Four. Housing associations will diversify in nature.
This is less of a prediction, and more of an extrapolation of the trends that many of us are seeing. As the dead hand of regulation has been lifted from HA’s shoulders, we are still yet to see the full implications of where we will go with this new freedom. I suggest that this will see an expansion of the spectrum within which HAs move. The real question is where will they go and what will they do? It should be an interesting year to observe the movements, as a range of HAs take the first tentative steps into any number of brave new worlds.

Prediction Five. Spurs will win the Premier League
A man can dream can’t he?

The Curse Of Interesting Times

It's been an interesting week. As some readers may have noticed, we've been at the centre of an ill-informed and unwelcome media bandwagon for a couple of weeks. While now is not the time to go into that in any detail, it is something that I will return to when the time is right. All I'll say for now is that its an "interesting" experience.

Playbook vs iPad - who wins?

Interesting was also how I'd describe a twitter exchange I had during the week. Having mentioned Aerotropolis last week - as the concept that would redefine the global city and drive this century's economic powerhouses, I wasn't expecting that the wonder of Twitter would put me directly in touch with Greg Lindsay, one of the book's authors.

For those of us already thinking that Western Europe's economic prospects were poor enough, the news that the European Commission has downgraded its growth forecast for next year from 1.7% to 0.5% was bad. Much worse though is Greg's view that Europe will probably never build another major airport hub, let alone anything on the grand scale of a modern Aerotropolis. So if his analysis about future economic drivers is right, is there a country out there willing to flatten what's left of its industrial heritage, incur the wrath of the Greens, and build "Eurotropolis", and if not are we heading inexorably but inevitably for a new Dark Age?

I've had an interesting week with technology too. I confess to being a Blackberry addict (although at the insistence of my wife I am slowly learning not to take it to bed with me) and it has been the gadget for me for the last five years, integrating my work and home life in a way that previously I had only been able to imagine. Not for me the beautiful iPhone; despite the fact it is better than the Blackberry at almost everything, the keyboard of the Blackberry is unbeatable and as a heavy user (this blog is being typed on it) that really matters.

So as phones have grown to tablets and while everyone else I see is showing off their iPad, I've gone the Blackberry Playbook route. It's been really interesting to get to know it - intuitive to its core, I've not even had to refer to a manual once. It's not as cool as the iPad, it's definitely got a worse name - somewhere between Hugh Hefner and children's TV - but it's got two things absolutely right. The virtual keyboard is the best I've ever used and at 2/3rds the size of the iPad, it is the perfect size for reading documents, reports and even books. And as a business user, what do I on it? Type things and read things. Steve Jobs was a great man and consumers all over the world have benefited from his genius; but before you go out and buy iPads or iPhones for your staff and Boards, check out the Playbook, especially if you are already heavily into Blackberry phones. For me Blackberry still "does the business."

And finally on the "interesting" theme, this week has seen the Lords amendments to the Localism Bill considered by the Commons and we now know where the powers ushered in by this Bill will end up. Designed to devolve greater powers to councils and neighbourhoods and give local communities more control over housing and planning decisions, it was announced with a great flourish and rhetoric about real power to real people. As Andrew Stunell MP put it this week: "The communities that local authorities have served have had the role of angry bystanders, whereby things were simply done to them, imposed on them or dumped on them - not done by them, decided by them or, least of all, chosen and delivered by them. This Bill marks a huge cultural change not just for those local communities and local councils, but for those in Westminster, and perhaps even more for those in Whitehall. We need to change that culture: it is a long overdue change, and this Bill makes a start on achieving it."

It will be interesting to see if this is what happens. Yes the Bill contains some very welcome revisions around the reform to the HRA and the Community Right to Challenge. More immediately though, will the planning provisions and housing provisions of the Bill combine to create the desperately needed new homes, in the right places, or will it create a hiatus in the system that stops development in its tracks? And, with the economy flatlining, welfare reform just round the corner, public services retreating as the cash cuts start to bite, are communities going to have the time, capacity and resilience to embrace their new starring role? I am hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.

As a postscript, today's blog title obviously comes from the Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times." Apparently, this is the first of three curses that increase in severity, see if you can guess the other two.