When it comes to predicting the future, I'm sure I don't have the unnervingly accurate prophetic powers of John Elfreth Watkins who was recently feted across the internet for his ten 100-year predictions that mostly came true (Watkins’ hits: digital photography, the internet, tanks. Watkins’ misses: the end of the letters C, X and Q, predicting everyone will walk 10 miles a day). Disclaimers of accuracy aside as it seems traditional for blog posts in January to indulge in some soothsaying I’d like to add my own list of predictions for 2012.
Prediction One. Grim is about to get grimmer, and we're not all in this together.
The gloomy economic news is not going away any time soon and as a result the inequalities in our society (which according to some measures are now higher than they have been for the last three decades) will get wider still. This economic instability will continue to cause turmoil in the housing industry and at least one major RSL will rue some of its decisions, as over-stretched reaches breaking point.
The dire financial straits have tested the sense of fairness on which British society rests, with those at both extremes of the wealth spectrum vilified by their political opponents. A plague on both their houses, I say. Despite the pernicious effect of the financial divide I am not holding my breath for equitable corrective measures from the government. The 2012 forecast is for protests and further riots.
Prediction Two. Localism will clog up the planning machinery and expected homes will be delayed.
One of The Localism Bill’s key aspects is to give communities greater powers when it comes to planning permission. So far, so sensible. However, we’re going to see in 2012 that power to the people is one thing, but a natural consequence is that it gives more power to the Nimbyists. The Government has to decide whether it wants to address the critical housing shortage, if so we need resolution.
Prediction Three. Homelessness will increase and the "sticking plaster" policies will come unstuck.
Against the backdrop of the housing crisis, the issue of homelessness seems to have dropped down the news agenda. This will change as further financial constraints put more at risk of losing their houses, as well as increased unemployment meaning that taking to the streets is the only option for some. Again, this is an area where policy needs to be stronger to deal with a mounting problem. It’s certainly not something that the Government will want to be visible as the world’s attention turns on London for the Olympics.
Prediction Four. Housing associations will diversify in nature.
This is less of a prediction, and more of an extrapolation of the trends that many of us are seeing. As the dead hand of regulation has been lifted from HA’s shoulders, we are still yet to see the full implications of where we will go with this new freedom. I suggest that this will see an expansion of the spectrum within which HAs move. The real question is where will they go and what will they do? It should be an interesting year to observe the movements, as a range of HAs take the first tentative steps into any number of brave new worlds.
Prediction Five. Spurs will win the Premier League
A man can dream can’t he?
Prediction One. Grim is about to get grimmer, and we're not all in this together.
The gloomy economic news is not going away any time soon and as a result the inequalities in our society (which according to some measures are now higher than they have been for the last three decades) will get wider still. This economic instability will continue to cause turmoil in the housing industry and at least one major RSL will rue some of its decisions, as over-stretched reaches breaking point.
 |
| You've got to have a dream... |
Prediction Two. Localism will clog up the planning machinery and expected homes will be delayed.
One of The Localism Bill’s key aspects is to give communities greater powers when it comes to planning permission. So far, so sensible. However, we’re going to see in 2012 that power to the people is one thing, but a natural consequence is that it gives more power to the Nimbyists. The Government has to decide whether it wants to address the critical housing shortage, if so we need resolution.
Prediction Three. Homelessness will increase and the "sticking plaster" policies will come unstuck.
Against the backdrop of the housing crisis, the issue of homelessness seems to have dropped down the news agenda. This will change as further financial constraints put more at risk of losing their houses, as well as increased unemployment meaning that taking to the streets is the only option for some. Again, this is an area where policy needs to be stronger to deal with a mounting problem. It’s certainly not something that the Government will want to be visible as the world’s attention turns on London for the Olympics.
Prediction Four. Housing associations will diversify in nature.
This is less of a prediction, and more of an extrapolation of the trends that many of us are seeing. As the dead hand of regulation has been lifted from HA’s shoulders, we are still yet to see the full implications of where we will go with this new freedom. I suggest that this will see an expansion of the spectrum within which HAs move. The real question is where will they go and what will they do? It should be an interesting year to observe the movements, as a range of HAs take the first tentative steps into any number of brave new worlds.
Prediction Five. Spurs will win the Premier League
A man can dream can’t he?
No comments:
Post a Comment